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A Vision to Benefit America's Way of Life

Imagine a system that supports robust economic growth, better-than-before health of the environment, and improved quality of life for all citizens.

Global Dynamics Require New Transportation Strategies

Two additional dynamics demand that the United States pursue new transportation strategies: global climate change, and oil availability.

Global Climate Change

Global climate change has become a political, economic and environmental fact of life. As stated by Wall Street strategist Edward Kerschner, “Climate change is a market force as profound as the changes ushered in by the baby boom, globalization, the aging of populations, and the digital age.” To make a positive contribution on the issue of global climate change, transportation policies needed to reduce dependence on foreign oil, reduce energy consumption, and reduce travel demand.

Our transportation system runs on oil. It consumes over 12 million barrels a day. In 1972, we imported 35 percent of the oil consumed. In 2007 we imported 60 percent. Of the known oil reserves in world, 69 percent were under the control of OPEC nations. It has proven costly to be so dependent on them. Transportation represents 32 percent of domestic carbon emissions and is the fastest growing source of these emissions. Our surface transportation system emits more carbon dioxide than the total for any nation in the world from all sources (except China). Highway vehicles generate 72 percent of these emissions.

Transportation must lead in finding solutions. Inevitably, global warming will change the way we live, work, and travel. Actions to reduce transportation CO2 emissions, especially cars, trucks and air travel, are especially important. The following goals are both bold yet achievable.

Figure 27. U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960–2030

Goals

Support the President’s goal to reduce oil consumption by 20 percent in 10 years.

  • Double the fuel efficiency of new passenger cars and light trucks by 2020, and the entire fleet by 2030.

  • Double transit ridership by 2030, and significantly expand the market share of passengers and freight moved by rail.

  • Reduce the growth in vehicle miles traveled (VMT)—from three trillion in 2006 to five trillion, rather than the projected seven trillion, by 2055.

  • Reduce the percentage of commuters who drive alone to 1980 levels, and increase the percentage of those who ride transit, car pool, walk, bike, or work at home.

Transportation Sector Already Improving Air Quality

Data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) show substantial progress towards emissions reductions.

Despite substantial gains in population, the economy, the number of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT), since 1970 the nation’s air quality has improved. Specifically between 1970 and 2002, through technological improvements, emissions associated with motor vehicles have decreased substantially. Reductions include: volatile organic compounds (VOCs) declined by 73 percent, nitrous oxides (NOx) by 41 percent, and ozone by 62 percent.

Reducing congestion on the highways can also reduce carbon dioxide emissions because less fuel is burned.

Dynamics of Oil Supply and Demand

By May 2007, the price of U.S. gasoline nationwide was $3.25 per gallon and over $4.00 per gallon on the West Coast. The growth of the automobile fleets in China, India, and the developing world dramatically increased the demand for oil at a period in history where the discovery of new oil fields had slowed and production was approaching its upper limits. The 20th century was the century of cheap oil. By all accounts it appears that the 21st Century will be a period when the price of oil will rise.

In a report titled Peak Oil prepared in 2005 by SAIC for the U.S. Department of Defense, analysts stated, “The peaking of world oil production presents the United States and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking.”

Table 2. Auto Ownership

As oil prices climbed to $70 per barrel in 2005, attention returned to the question of when the peak in world oil production would occur. A 1950s prediction said it would hit in 1972. The U.S. Department of Geological Services insisted in 2006, that reserves were sufficient to get us to nearly 2030 before the peak. Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. As Futurist Glen Hiemstra stated, “There is not much time to prepare. When the peak in supply is reached, demand will also be at a peak and rising.”

Higher priced gasoline will change travel and transportation in many ways. When oil production hits its peak and the world is required to begin a transition to alternative sources of energy, this will require even more far reaching changes in transportation, our economy and society.

Two changes are already taking place as a result of increased fuel costs, in terms of what we drive and where we live.

Fuel Efficiency
Many car buyers are turning their backs on gas guzzlers and purchasing more fuel efficient vehicles. The average fuel efficiency in the United States was 21 miles per gallon in 2007, in part as a carry over from gas prices which until then had averaged $2 or less. The fleet average in Europe was 45 miles per gallon where gas prices have averaged from $7 to $8 per gallon.

While many U.S. buyers have opted for sedan hybrid models which get between 50 and 60 miles per gallon, they do not have to give up SUVs entirely. SUV manufacturers have introduced more fuel-efficient, hybrid models.

Infill Development
Many households are moving closer in to downtowns and inner suburbs to reduce their commutes.

According to the Urban Land Institute, U.S. cities are growing again. Of the 20 largest cities, 16 gained population from 1990 to 2000. New York City grew by almost 700,000 and major Sunbelt cities posted double-digit gains. Smaller cities like Seattle, Denver, Charlotte, and Nashville grew as well. The back-to-the-city movement is now a clear trend. More people living in cities has led to a construction boom for urban infill housing. Urban infill housing also makes sense from the perspective of smart growth. It tends to be of a higher density than suburban housing, thus making better use of increasingly limited urban land. Infill development supports mass transit, as well as walking and biking. To public officials, urban infill makes a lot of sense. Developers have discovered that it makes sense for them as well.

Lakewood, Colorado—A Suburban Infill Development Success Story

Lakewood, Colorado is a suburban community of 150,000 west of Denver. In 1966, the 1.4 million-square-foot Villa Italia, the largest shopping mall in the region opened to great fanfare. Thirty years later it had become 70 percent vacant and in 2001 it closed. The City of Lakewood together with Denver-based Continuum Partners launched a plan to redevelop the site. What they have planned is a mixed-use project called “Belmar,” a 22 block downtown in the making, which exemplifies the potential for transforming post World War II suburbs into more diverse, compact, sustainable, pedestrian-oriented and transit-oriented communities. Phase I opened in May, 2004. At the end of 2005, Belmar had 650,000 square feet of retail/restaurant/entertainment space, 212,000 square feet of office space, and 109 apartment rental units. Trammel Crow Residential has 310 apartment units and 75 loft-style condominiums under construction. The 70 row houses built so far are selling at an average price of $360,000. Complete build-out of the project is scheduled for 2012.

When this project won recognition in 2007 by the Urban Land Institute, the Jury wrote the following: “A public-private partnership envisioned a dying 104 acre suburban mall as the city’s new downtown and now is transforming that vision into reality. As it nears completion, Belmar is justifying the developer’s tenacity in pioneering a new urban lifestyle and neighborhood.” As Anthony Flint, author of This Land: The Battle over Sprawl and the Future of America, recently wrote, “The shift from the conventional suburban development pattern to more concentrated urban, walkable environments is happening… The proof of this shift is the big home builders themselves. These guys don’t get into things unless they have a reasonable chance of making money. I think they realize the future is more dense, more mixed use, more urban. They’re looking at urban infill and redevelopment.”

Sustainable Transportation for a Better Future

America’s transportation system has served us well, but now faces the challenges of congestion, energy supply, environmental impacts, climate change, and sprawl that threaten to undermine the economic, social, and environmental future of the nation. With 140 million more people expected over the next 50 years, past practices and current trends are not sustainable.

To meet the transportation needs of the present and pass on a better world to our children and grandchildren, we must accomplish the difficult task of expanding the transportation network’s capacity to serve growing population and communities and an expanding economy while simultaneously reducing the environmental footprint of the system.

The Triple Bottom Line

The transportation decision-makers of the future should adopt the triple bottom line as a yardstick to evaluate the sustainability of surface transportation system policies and performance in order to ensure that transportation strategies and investments will result in

  • Robust economic growth;

  • Better-than-before health of the environment; and

  • Improved quality of life for all citizens.

"The triple bottom line" is a term coined to encourage sustainable development by evaluating performance on the basis of social, economic, and environmental impacts. Applying it to assess projects, programs, and policies sends a message that financial, cost-benefit, and economic considerations are not the sole drivers of transportation projects. Under this approach, economic, social, and environmental factors are to be given equal consideration.

Support Robust Economic Growth
Our population is growing, more cars will be traveling more miles, and truck freight is expected to double by 2035. One question is whether this demand can be met in part through alternatives which can reduce the overall amount of new highway capacity that will have to be built? The answer is yes. Operational strategies that draw upon advanced ITS traffic management technologies can improve system performance. Congestion pricing offers significant possibilities. Variably priced high-occupancy toll lanes have been accepted here in the United States and are working in places like California and Minnesota. Policy advocates, such as the U.S. DOT Policy Office, have been encouraging congestion pricing, where higher fees are charged during peak travel periods, at times on roads which are currently free of charge, to encourage drivers to drive at different times of day or to shift to transit. They point to the cordon pricing imposed in London, Stockholm, and Singapore as a potential model for U.S. cities.

Goals

  1. Manage, operate, and improve system performance of existing transportation facilities and services by adopting advanced operations and ITS technologies.

  2. Use asset management to preserve, extend life, restore, and enhance the existing system.

  3. Improve network connectivity within and between modes for passenger and freight traffic.

  4. Leverage existing capacity with better highway and street grid integration.

  5. Use pricing strategies that improve efficiency in travel time, utilization of existing capacity, and reliability consistent with environmental, social, and economic goals.

  6. Expand transportation system capacity judiciously using sustainability principles and context sensitive solution practices in order to achieve program and project outcomes that fit into and enhance their settings while fulfilling transportation objectives.

Leave a Better-Than-Before Environment
To deal with the impacts which transportation projects can have on communities and the environment, state and local transportation agencies are applying new approaches, in particular, Context Sensitive Solutions, and Environmental Stewardship. These approaches achieve a significant change in direction from just avoiding negatives to creating positives.
For example, today’s highways are the number one recycler in America, reusing recycled asphalt pavement, slag, fly ash, tires, glass, and roofing shingles in our pavement mixes. Highways through mitigation are creating a net gain in wetlands. Between 1996 and 2002, $5 billion was invested in over 15,000 community projects ranging from the preservation of historic train stations to the creation of thousands of miles of bike and walking trails through the transportation enhancements program.

Goals

  1. Go beyond mitigation to enhancement of our natural systems—air, water, and wildlife habitats.

  2. Increase the acreage of wetland reserves and wildlife habitats that is annually set aside and preserved; and increase the number of community transportation enhancement projects that are annually funded and constructed.

  3. Measure end results so that the natural environment is better than before project-by-project.

  4. Expand the reuse and recycling of materials.

  5. Create long-lasting materials to conserve resources.

Improve the Quality of Life for All Citizens
A Brooking Institution study estimates that by 2030, half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000. In the past, the quest for affordable housing and lower-cost commercial space has dispersed suburban development ever outward. Transportation, housing, and land-use policy makers should collaborate on policies that create more sustainable patterns of development.

A study of 28 existing urban areas conducted by Reid Ewing of the Center for Smart Growth at the University of Maryland demonstrated that the average vehicle miles traveled by individuals living in the 10 most sprawling areas was 25 percent higher that those who lived in the least sprawling areas.

Closer cooperation is needed to coordinate land use and transportation at all levels of government. Local communities often have neither the tools nor the resources to manage the growth they are experiencing, let alone integrate transportation and land-use planning. State and Federal levels of government have more substantial resources, but historically have not had the sense of ownership in the outcomes of land-use planning and development decisions. This is particularly true for the transportation agencies, which usually represent the biggest single public works investor in any community or region.

Goals

  1. Changing demographics could make it possible to satisfy a third of new housing and commercial development demand through infill of central cities and close in suburbs, and an additional third through new mixed-use commercial and multi-family development, and compact new, single-family development friendly to walking, biking, and transit.

  2. Encourage community road design which encourages local trips to be made on a well-connected network of local streets and reduces trips made on arterials.

  3. Preserve and strengthen rural areas and small towns through coordinated transportation and land-use strategies intended to preserve fragile natural and human environments.


Photo courtesy of the California Department of Transportation.Innovative fi nancing solutions will be needed to meet the capacity needs forecast for the nation’s major metropolitan areas.

 

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