Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation
The surface transportation system for the future must address the economic and demographic changes that have taken place over the past 50 years, and deal effectively with the changes expected for the next 50 years.
Population Growth 2005 to 2055: 140 Million
Over the next 50 years our population is forecast to grow from 295 million to 435 million. An equivalent of another Canada will be added to our ranks each decade. This is in contrast to Europe and Japan whose populations are expected to decline.
Over the next 30 years, 88 percent of the nation’s population growth will occur in the South and West. (Figure 11.) Florida, California, and Texas are each expected to grow by 15 million people. Arizona is projected to add 5.6 million and North Carolina 4.2 million. The top five fastest-growing states are expected to be Nevada (114 percent), Arizona (109 percent), Florida (80 percent), Texas (60 percent), and Utah (56 percent). Even though not expected to grow as fast, the population of the Northeast and the Midwest are still expected to increase—the Northeast by 4.1 million and the Midwest by 6.1 million.
Figure 10. South and West to Grow Most Over Next 30 Years
Figure 11. Census Region Population Forecast, 2005–2030
Growing 65+ Population
As the oldest baby boomers become senior citizens in 2011, the population aged 65 and older is projected to grow significantly. By 2030, the number of older people will have grown from 35 million to 70 million. One in eight of those over 65 will also be over 85. Most of those over 65 are expected to want to drive their own cars. Those living in low-density places will face serious mobility and access problems when they can no longer drive. To meet the needs of this growing elderly population, expansion of public transportation services will be required in both urban and rural areas.
Growth Centralizes in Exurbs, Suburbs, and Mega-Regions
Since 1950, the number of people living in metropolitan areas in this country increased from 85 million to 226 million. Over the same period the rural population has declined from 65 million to 55 million. Seventy-five percent of the growth in the past 50 years has concentrated in the suburbs, with the remainder going to central cities. (Figure 12.)
As of June 2005, there were 12 “mega-metropolitan” areas of 5 million in population and above. These include New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, DC, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit, Dallas, Miami, Houston, and Atlanta. There are also 53 metropolitan areas of one million and above. According to a 2004 study by the University of Pennsylvania School of Design, between 2000 and 2050 more than 70 percent of the nation’s population growth and 80 percent of its economic growth are expected to take place in metropolitan areas.
Rural Challenges
Even though a state may be rural that does not mean that it does not face population pressures and growth in travel demand. Out of the 20 states expected to grow the fastest over the next 30 years, several are rural including Nevada, New Mexico, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, and Montana. What these states have in common is large geographic size, and as a consequence highway systems which have to span great distances. The volume of long-haul trucking in the United States moving trade to and from the Coasts across rural America is expected to at least double by 2035. Agriculture also continues to be a major part of the economies of many states. Agriculture depends on efficient, low-cost rail, truck, and water transportation to keep U.S. production competitive in the global economy. All rural states will face the enormous cost of preserving for future generations the network of roads they have built over the past 80 years. It will be important for them to succeed, not only to meet the needs of their own citizens, but also to maintain their part of the national network the U.S. economy depends on.
Figure 12. Long-Term Trends by Major Geographic Areas: Suburbs, Central Cities, and Non-Metropolitan, 1950–2000
Travel, Tourism, and Recreation Depend on Transportation
One of the least understood and appreciated industries in the United States is travel, tourism, and recreation. Together they rank as the most important industry in three states, and rank either second, third, or fourth, in the rest. As the role of extractive industries such as mining and timber has been declining in parts of rural America, the role of travel, tourism, and recreation has increased. This industry is directly dependent on a good transportation system.
Travel and tourism are expected to generate over $700 billion in revenues in 2007, over $100 billion of that from international visitors. Leisure trips represent 80 percent of domestic travel. Over 200 million Americans visit U.S. Forest campgrounds each year. The use of forest service roads has increased 15-fold over the past 20 years. The number of visitors to National Parks is approaching 300 million.
Families in this country value outdoor recreational activities like skiing, camping, fishing, golfing, and many more. Congress has recognized the importance of these activities to the American people and has included resources in the highway program to support them. The Federal lands program is a major source of support for travel on public lands such as National Parks and U.S. Forests. Congress created a program to recognize and preserve roads that have outstanding scenic, historical, cultural, natural, recreational, or archeological value. As of 2005, the National Scenic Byways Program had designated 27 All-American Roads and 99 National Scenic Byways. Sustaining viable transportation access to outdoor recreation is vital to consumers, vital to the communities whose economies depend on it, and vital to the outdoor recreation industry.
Healthy Economic Growth Forecast
U.S. economic growth is anticipated to remain healthy, with real GDP projected to expand by 2.8 percent annually. Strong growth in GDP can lead to increased travel. With healthy GDP growth and a globally competitive U.S. economy, total freight tonnage is projected to double by 2035. The economies of Europe and Japan are expected to grow by 2 percent over the next 30 years, down from 2.6 percent over the past 30 years. The economies of countries like China and India are expected to continue to grow at 7 to 9 percent annually. According to Global Insight’s Energy Service, oil prices are expected to drop from current levels and hover around the $50 per barrel range through 2020 or so. Thereafter, the forecast shows oil prices climbing steadily to 2030 and beyond.
Travel Growth to Continue
Travel in the United States measured in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased from 600 billion per year in 1955 to 2.75 trillion in 2000 and is about to hit 3 trillion. The VMT growth rate between 1993 and 2002 was 2.5 percent per year. U.S. DOT’s 2004 Conditions and Performance Report estimates that it will grow by 2.07 percent through 2022. At this rate by 2055, VMT is expected to exceed 7 trillion. (Figure 13.)
The number of licensed drivers grew from 78 million 50 years ago to 205 million today and is expected to reach over 380 million 50 years out. Our highways carried 65 million vehicles in 1956, they carry 246 million today. Vehicles on the road are expected to reach nearly 400 million by 2055.
Demographic Trends Affecting Transportation (continued) >>
